Probability

The branch of mathematics that deals with events whose possible outcomes are assigned distinct weights.

Probability only applies when explanations are known and insulated from Knowledge growth. When new knowledge can change the situation — as it can in all human affairs — probability calculations become unreliable. This is why Bayesian Epistemology fails as a theory of knowledge.

Connections

• •Limited domain — only applies with known explanations insulated from knowledge growth
• •Misapplied by Bayesian Epistemology to epistemology
• •Cannot rescue Inductivism from its logical flaws
• •Depends on prior explanations — probability is not fundamental
• •Related to Conjecture — probabilistic models are conjectural
• •Knowledge growth can invalidate any probability assignment
• •Properly a branch of mathematics, not a foundation of Epistemology